At the Pakatan Harapan convention, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim criticised Johor Barisan Nasional’s intention to go solo in the coming state election, saying this could even lead to an early dissolution of Parliament and a general election.

 BN secretary-general Datuk Seri Zambry Abdul Kadir responded by saying BN would continue to uphold the consensus within the Unity Government until the end of the current administration’s term.

Anwar later thanked all component parties in the Unity Government during the Cabinet meeting on Wednesday, including BN, Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) and Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), for clearly reaffirming their support  until the completion of its term.

On the surface, it appears that PH and Umno have resolved their differences.

However, Umno is no longer concealing its political ambitions, and another round of conflict between the two sides seems inevitable.

 At this stage, Umno is merely playing a double game – smiling at its partners in the federal government while stirring tensions at the grassroots level in the states.

Zambry’s statement resembles the earlier Umno supreme council statement regarding Negeri Sembilan’s political turmoil. He insisted there was no issue of BN betraying the Unity Government and said BN respected Johor BN’s position and preparations for the upcoming state election.

At its meeting on Apr 30, the Umno political bureau resolved to continue supporting the Negeri Sembilan Unity Government, but at the same time respected the decision by 14 Umno state assemblymen who had lost confidence in Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun.

With the party leadership refusing to intervene, Negeri Sembilan has yet to regain political stability.

Umno leaders at various levels have argued that the Johor government was formed before the Unity Government and therefore does not fall under the Unity Government framework.

As such, BN’s decision to contest the state election alone does not require PH’s consent. Now that the party leadership has endorsed the move, Johor BN going solo appears almost certain.

Moreover, Umno president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has yet to respond to Anwar’s remarks about the possibility of an early general election.

Umno appears to be adopting a strategy of “strategic ambiguity”, waiting for the right moment before launching a full offensive to reclaim its dominance in national politics.

For now, Umno cannot afford to openly break ties with PH because too many political interests are at stake, including the survival of the Perak and Pahang state governments, which still depend on PH’s support.

However, PH leaders are not politically naïve. They clearly see Umno’s insincere attitude.

Yet with Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad exiting Parti Keadilan Rakyat, and with takeover issues surrounding PKR’s internal dynamics, PH still needs BN’s 30 parliamentary seats to maintain the federal government’s stability.

Besides, amid the global energy crisis, Anwar and PH leaders lack confidence in holding a general election anytime soon. If PH were to win fewer seats than Perikatan Nasional (PN) and BN, it would lose the dominant role in forming the next coalition government.

According to PAS president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang, during the Negeri Sembilan political crisis, two Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) assemblymen declared themselves neutral, causing plans to topple the PH state government in cooperation with Umno to collapse.

This exposed Negeri Sembilan Umno’s claims that PH had crossed a “red line” in cooperation as merely an excuse. The real aim of Negeri Sembilan Umno was to overthrow the PH state government and replace it – even if it meant working with PAS and Bersatu.

Like PAS, Umno harbours ambitions of dominating the political landscape. Hadi claimed that after being “betrayed” by Bersatu during the Perlis and Negeri Sembilan political crises, PAS would review its cooperation with Bersatu and decide before the next general election whether to continue the partnership.

Likewise, if Umno regains a leading position, it could just as easily discard PH.

The increasingly tense relationship between PH and Umno is reminiscent of the PN  government under Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.

Following the Sheraton Move, Bersatu withdrew from PH, causing the PH government to collapse. BN and PN then cooperated to form a coalition government.

On Aug 16, 2021, Umno withdrew its support, forcing Muhyiddin to resign as Prime Minister, leading to the collapse of the PN government. Umno vice-president Datuk Sri Ismail Sabri Yaakob subsequently became Prime Minister.

This episode should serve as a lesson for PH.

Umno is merely waiting for the right opportunity. Even though Umno may not have enough seats to reclaim the premiership, it can still restrain and pressure the Madani government.

 “He who seeks to condemn can always find a pretext.” Umno could cite various reasons to end cooperation with PH, including accusations that DAP insulted the Selangor royal institution or claims that grassroots members and supporters cannot accept DAP’s political ideology.

Given that the contradictions between the two sides have now surfaced openly, it is inevitable that PH and Umno will increasingly become partners in name only.

When parliament reconvenes on June 22, the fate of two major constitutional amendment bills – separating the roles of attorney-general and public prosecutor, and limiting the prime minister’s term – will reveal whether BN genuinely supports the Unity Government.

When the prime minister term-limit amendment bill was voted on in March, it received only 146 votes, falling short by just two votes.

Eight MPs from the Unity Government bloc were absent during the vote, including three BN lawmakers.

With Rafizi and Nik Nazmi having resigned as MPs, Anwar needs BN’s parliamentary support even more, especially since these two constitutional amendments are part of PH’s reform agenda.

The cooperation between PH and Umno appears to be reaching its end and political turmoil now seems unavoidable.

(Lim Sue Goan is the Chief Leader Writer for Newswire.)